Shadow rental market now impacting apartment rents

Although large apartment buildings in most U.S. markets have managed to remain profitable during the housing slump, the oft-discussed 'shadow' rental market (i.e., single-family homes rented out to pay the mortgage) is now having an impact, but not as much as the impact from a slowing economy. One reason cited? People doubling up with roommates or moving back with family. From a Wall Street Journal article:

For the past year, apartment buildings have been one of the few bright spots in the real-estate industry as people forced out of the home-buying market by foreclosures or the credit crunch have turned to renting.

But now the specter of job losses is beginning to spread the gloom into that sector as well. As would-be renters are doubling up in apartments or moving in with friends and families, rents and occupancy rates are beginning to fall in many cities...

Job losses bode poorly for apartment-company stocks, which have outperformed their real-estate rivals so far this year. The Dow Jones Residential REIT subindex is up 14% year-to-date, while the overall Dow Jones Equity REIT index, which includes hotels, retail, self-storage and office properties, is down 1.8%...

Investors have been buoyed by the 1.5 million rental households that have entered the market in the past year, including buyers locked out of the for-sale housing market and those who defaulted on their mortgages. The one downside of the housing crisis for apartment owners has been the "shadow market," made up of unsold homes that owners have put on the rental market.

But that competition isn't nearly as big a problem as job-loss trends. "A lot of folks think it's the shadow market that's softening rents. It's really a jobs issue," says Richard Campo, chief executive of Camden Property Trust....

The biggest impact from job losses could be seen in cities such as Charlotte, N.C., and Atlanta, which haven't seen large shadow markets develop. "That group in the middle is starting to show signs of slowing," says Haendel St. Juste, an analyst at Green Street Advisors Inc. "When you look at the markets that are starting to slow, it's spreading beyond the markets that were burdened by housing."...

For investors, concerns about falling rents and rising vacancy has resulted in a decline in prices for apartment buildings. The "capitalization rate," which measures the relationship between the price and cash flow of properties, dropped one-quarter of one percent from the second quarter of 2007 to second quarter of this year...

The availability of credit from government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has buoyed values and fueled new deals. Turbulence at the mortgage titans, which together with Ginnie Mae hold 35% of the mortgage debt on multifamily housing, riled apartment owners last month as investors worried about the fate of Fannie and Freddie. But those worries dissipated as the housing bill signed into law last month made the government's implied guarantee of Fannie and Freddie's $5.2 trillion in mortgage securities more explicit.