What's next for L.A. commercial real estate?

Want to get an idea of how MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors sees the past and future of L.A. commercial real estate? As part of our ongoing association with Beacon Economics, we've been writing the real estate sections for their conference books. Here are the bullet points summarizing our thoughts for the coming year and beyond:

• As employers resist hiring new workers and opt to cut expenses further by opting for sub-lease space, the office market in Los Angeles County will remain under pressure through the first part of 2012. Look for rents to fall by another 9% by the end of 2010 as vacancies remain just above 18%.
• Although the retail market in Los Angeles has borne the brunt of The Great Recession, the region's population density has helped it plod along much better than many other markets in the U.S. Look for asking rents to continue falling by another 5% by the end of 2010 as vacancies remain elevated before gradually trending down by early 2011.
• While not immune from larger economic forces, the combination of the ports and one of the largest manufacturing sectors in the country will help the industrial sector rebound to healthy levels by mid 2012. For now, look for rents to fall by another 4% by the end of 2010 as vacancies remain stuck at about 8%.