"The times, they are
a-changin’.”
When Bob Dylan penned
those words back in 1963, the country was embarking on a generational political
and social upheaval that would come to define the next decade, especially for
civil rights, voting rights and a national safety net.
At the same time, the demographic make-up of
the country in the 1960 Census was still quite traditional:
over 88% Caucasian, 19% foreign born, 70%
lived in cities, 63% owned their own homes, 69% of men were married, 65% of
women were married and the average family size was 3.65 persons.
Total population:
183.2 million.
By the 2010 Census, five decades of gradual shifts in
immigration, the rising financial independence of women in the workplace,
expanding urban boundaries and relaxed social mores on divorce gave us a
country a bit different from 1960: about
72% Caucasian (64% non-Hispanic whites), 13% foreign born, 81% lived in cities,
65% owned their homes, 51% of men were married, 49% of women were married and
the average family size was 3.14 persons.
Total population: 308.7 million.
By 2050, the Census Bureau is projecting a total population
approaching 430 million, with 60% of this increase due to immigrants and their
children.
That’s mostly because the U.S.
has entered into what’s known as a ‘baby bust,’ in which the domestic birthrate
is not high enough to replace the population.
In fact, according to a recent Pew Research Center study, the 2011
birthrate of 63 births per 1,000 women of child-bearing age was the lowest ever
recorded -- and nearly half the rate noted at the height of the Baby Boom.
Since a growing economy and entitlements such
as Social Security and Medicare rely on younger workers participating in the
workforce, we’ll have no choice but to embrace ambitious people from other
countries -- and of course they’ll need somewhere to live.
The reason I’m citing these statistics is because the
election results of November of 2012 starkly revealed ongoing socio-economic
and political shifts that had been quietly occurring in the country for decades
(even if some insulated politicians and pundits never got the memo).
Besides re-electing the first
African-American President in history, voters in two states approved gay
marriage while those in two others said they were ready for legal marijuana use.
While you could argue that the main Presidential argument
was about tax reform and entitlement spending, in other ways it was arguably
the most progressive election of my lifetime and, like it or not, foreshadows
more changes to come that the nation’s builders have already been addressing
for years. Today, because that means
everything from Milliennials demanding sustainable living to single women who
telecommute from home offices, the way in which the industry markets,
merchandises and sells the latest models will differ for each specific
audience.
The largest cohort is actually the
Millennials,
80 million strong and born largely between 1983 and 2000.
With the older ones eyeing large student loan
payments and having lived through the financial meltdown, many are not yet
ready to make the plunge into homeownership.
Still, a FannieMae survey reports that 90% of them want to eventually
own a home, and over 40% want to live in a close-in suburb where transportation
options abound.
Another huge group is the
Baby
Boomers, who number over 75 million people and control the vast majority of
the country’s personal wealth, as well as account for half of consumer
spending.
Over one-third of these people
(and over 40% of younger Boomers) plan to move somewhere else for retirement,
and cite healthcare and cost of living as their most important considerations,
followed by a better climate, proximity to family and networking opportunities
in order to keep socially engaged. They are now retiring at the rate of about
10,000 persons per day.
One key external group includes immigrants, who are more
likely to demand homes which can accommodate
multiple
generations.
Considering that
foreign-born persons are much more likely to live with other generations than
those born in the U.S. (24.6% versus 15.5%), builders will have no choice but
to address the 50 million or more immigrants expected to move here over the
next 40 years (half of whom will likely come from Latin American countries).
Within those groups -- as well as the smaller Generation X
-- builders will also have to carefully craft their messages to single women
(who are almost twice as likely as single men to buy a home) and
non-traditional couples or families who will demand the same things as everyone
else: a safe place to live, grow and
prosper.
