A year ago, I wrote about the excitement of a housing
rebound that finally seemed to have legs, with all relevant indices showing
positive growth.
Today, despite numerous
economic and political headwinds that have been regularly buffeting the demand
for new homes, I think it’s safe to say that the rebound is here to stay, but
is transitioning into the next stage which will likely face steeper interest
rates, tighter lending standards and higher building costs.
For the month of August 2013, seasonally adjusted annual new
home sales rose by 7.9 percent over July totals to 421,000 units, and are up by
12.6 percent year-over-year. At the same
time, however, median sales prices rose by just 0.55 percent over the last
year, while inventory rose from 4.6 to 5.0 months. While the relatively tight inventory levels
can be traced mostly to negative equity, fewer distressed sales and a depressed
supply of new construction, the combination of higher interest rates and
slumping consumer confidence is certainly contributing to a potential but
temporary pull-back in activity.
According to the most recent outlook from Freddie Mac, we
should expect the housing recovery to take some time, especially since the
economy won’t be running at its full potential until after 2015.
Nonetheless, their chief economist notes that
the market should continue to absorb these economic shocks and improve further in
2014, with 1.15 million new housing units added to the existing stock.
Builder confidence, which had climbed to 58 last August on
the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI), has since settled back to 54. This recent dip has been largely attributed to
the cost and availability of labor and buildable lots, as well as ongoing
political uncertainty in Washington.
Still, according to the newly minted NAHB/First American Leading Market
Index (LMI), 52 of the 350 metro areas tracked regularly have returned to or
exceeded pre-recessionary levels of activity.
With a score of .85 in October based on current permits, prices and
employment data, the national housing market is thus operating at 85 percent of
normal capacity.
That improvement is also due to builders continuing to pull
more permits and start more homes.
In
August 2013, they pulled a seasonally adjusted annual total of 918,000 permits,
which was down 3.8 percent from July but 11 percent higher than the same month
of 2012.
Housing starts totaled 891,000
units per year in August, for an increase of just 0.9 percent since July but up
by 19 percent over the last year.
For builders, however, there is definitely a concern about future
profit margins, mostly due to these higher costs for materials, labor and
especially land.
The Dow Jones U.S. Home
Construction Index, which tracks major public builders, has also taken notice,
declining by over 20 percent since last peaking at in May 2013.
Nonetheless, there is still enough confidence
in the rebound for Toll Bros. to recently snap up California’s Shapell
Industries and its 5,200 lots for $1.6 billion as well as for TRI Pointe Homes’
$2.7 billion merger with Weyerhauser’s own homebuilding business, which gives
it access to 27,000 lots sold under brands including Pardee, Winchester and
Trendmaker Homes.
After hitting the highest level in nearly four years during
August, existing home sales fell for the second consecutive month in October to
an annual rate of 5.12 million units. Even with this pullback, these sales have
remained above year-ago levels for the last 28 months, with monthly sales
totals up by 6.0 percent over October 2012.
With just 14 percent of distressed sales in the mix, sales prices rose
for the 11
th consecutive month to $199,500, up 12.8 percent over the
past year.
However, one important consequence of these rising prices
has been lower affordability, which has fallen to a five-year low as home price
gains have easily outpaced income growth.
According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), 64.5
percent of potential homebuyers nationwide could afford the median-priced home
during the third quarter of 2013 -- up substantially from the last trough of
40.4 noted in the same quarter of 2006 but down 13 percentage points from the
first quarter of 2012.
Still, for the 49 percent of buyers paying cash in September
– at least according to RealtyTrac – rising interest rates aren’t relevant,
especially for the institutional funds which have invested up to $20 billion
for over 200,000 homes added to the nation’s rental stock. What remains to be seen is what happens when
the low-hanging fruit has been picked off and these deals no longer pencil.
Indeed, may we continue to live in
interesting times.