About 15 years ago, when I formed the Technology Task Force
with the BIA of Southern California, at the time our builder members told us
that the adoption of technology in their homes would be postponed for two
reasons:
(a) Most consumers weren’t yet
asking for it; and (b) It would risk upsetting production schedules that were
already tight due to meeting unmet supply after the California real estate
recession of the 1990s.
Fast-forward to 2015, however, and it’s a completely
different world for the connected home. Most
importantly, consumers are now asking for it: according to a consumer survey by
smart-home vendor Savant, about half of the respondents believe home automation
will become a common feature in their home in less than a decade, with a
quarter thinking it will take just five years for widespread adoption.
Industry analysts seem to agree, with Strategy Analytics
forecasting that nearly 40 percent of homes in the U.S. will have some type of
smart-home technology installed by 2019, creating a market worth up to $115
billion.
Another industry analyst,
Gartner, predicts that the number of connected devices worldwide will reach 26
billion by 2020, or nearly 30 times the level of 2009.
You can largely thank the popularity of the smart phone for
this rise in the demand for a connected home, as the computing power in most
people’s pockets or purses can now replace the variety of historically pricey, vendor-specific
smart home control devices. In addition,
today’s more robust wireless systems have effectively removed the need to
provide hard-wired systems throughout the house.
Not to be outmaneuvered by after-market sources including
Apple, Google, Samsung, Home Depot, AT&T and others, Meritage Homes has
introduced its own basic wireless system as a standard feature.
For under $500, Meritage pays for a Home
Intelligence System by Nexia which can control thermostats, lighting, security
cameras, door locks and more.
In addition, since ‘future proofing’ past connected home
technology was a major stumbling block for widespread adoption, the fact that
Nexia offers a flexible, open-source system which can adapt to changes in
technology or users’ preferences is a critical improvement for this market. Even better, once buyers move in, they can
order plug-and-play products from Nexia’s Web site – such as those to connect
water valves, light switches and smoke detectors – that are shipped to their
home for self-installation.
Still, given the recent computer system breaches such as
those suffered by Sony Pictures, Target or even the White House, there is also
a concern that preventing hackers access to these home networks isn’t getting
the attention it deserves.
In fact,
Hewlett Packard found in its own study that 80 percent of smart home systems
accepted logins that could be guessed easily, while 60 percent didn’t properly
encrypt data for software downloads.
Consequently, it’s a bit ironic that two-thirds of respondents
polled for an iControl Networks survey – and included in its 2014 State of the
Smart Home report – considered security to be the top priority for themselves
and their families. However, assuming
these security issues can be addressed, nearly 20 percent of these same
respondents would consider leaving their children home alone at a younger age
if they had a live video feed acting as an assistant babysitter.
Another major factor driving the adoption of smart home
technology is monitoring energy use, which is why the Nest learning thermostats
and smoke alarms (now owned by Google) have changed the way consumers view
products long taken for granted.
Yet in
the long run, it’s not so much the devices themselves as the communication
ecosystem they’ll create to communicate with utility providers.
If a network can effectively combine the right energy-saving
steps at appropriate times, then peak loads for energy demand can be reduced,
thus preventing the need for more power plants even as the population
increases. Some utilities are already
encouraging this change by offering reward programs – and even rebates – for
those households which use and install smart thermostats to curb peak power
use.
Finally, for many survey respondents, the best use of a
connected home would be the ability to watch over the non-human members of
their families, with over half of pet owners citing pet monitoring as a top
five reason for installing smart home services – even more important than
outdoor convenience and entertainment.
Whatever the reasons for installing and using smart home
technologies, this much is clear: if
builders aren’t willing to adjust their production schedules to offer these
systems, buyers today will simply get them elsewhere.
Please click here to see the edition of BuilderBytes for 4/30/15 on the Web.
