New construction homes in the fourth quarter of 2017
accounted for 16.4 percent of all single-family homes for sale, the highest
level since Redfin began tracking this data in 2012, up from from 14.2 a year
earlier. This is a needed sign of progress in a housing market plagued by short
supply.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Redfin: New homes accounted for 16.4 percent of all single-family homes for sale in 4Q 2017
Labels: home prices, new home inventory, new home sales, Redfin
4Q 2017 GDP growth dips to 2.5 percent in second of three estimates
According to the "second" estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, down slightly from the initial estimate of 2.6 percent. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.
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January pending home sales fell to lowest level since October 2014
The Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.7 percent to 104.6 in January from a downwardly revised 109.8 in December 2017. After last month's retreat, the index is now 3.8 percent below a year ago and at its lowest level since October 2014 (104.1).The decline was attributed to low supply levels and rising interest rates.
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Labels: home prices, housing market, Lawrence Yun, NAR, Pending Home Sales Index
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Non-Employment Index edges down to 7.9 percent in February
The Hornstein-Kudlyak-Lange Non-Employment Index (NEI) was 7.9 percent in January 2018, edging down from December 2017. It has declined by 0.4 percentage points since January 2017. The NEI including workers who are part time for economic reasons (PTER) was 8.9 percent in January 2018, unchanged compared to the previous month. That index has declined by 0.6 percentage points since January 2017.
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Durable goods orders fell 3.7 percent in January, mostly due to volatile aircraft sector
Durable-goods order fell by a sharp 3.7% in January — the largest decline since last summer — mostly due to a sharp drop in contracts for passenger planes. Without including planes and cars, orders fell a much smaller 0.3%. However, a key measure of business investment fell for a second straight month, which has not happened since early 2016.
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Labels: durable goods orders, factory orders, U.S. economy
FHFA HPI: Home prices up 1.6 percent in 4Q 2017 and 6.7 percent year-on-year
FHFA House Price Index U.S. house prices rose 0.3 percent in December, 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017, and 6.7 percent between the fourth quarters of 2016 and 2017.
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Case-Shiller: December home prices up 0.7 percent from November and 6.3 percent year-on-year
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.7% month-over-month increase in December.
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February consumer confidence rises to highest level since late 2000
Consumer confidence improved to its highest level since November 2000 after a modest increase in January. Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was more favorable this month, with the labor force the main driver. Despite the recent stock market volatility, consumers expressed greater optimism about short-term prospects for business and labor market conditions, as well as their financial prospects. Overall, consumers remain quite confident that the economy will continue expanding at a strong pace in the months ahead.
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Southern California home prices in January rose at their fastest pace in 44 months
Affordability drives everything in the Inland Empire," said analyst Patrick Duffy, principal of MetroIntelligence Real Estate Advisors...And while mortgage rates remain historically low at about 4.5% for a 30-year fixed loan, they are ticking up and the increases may be impelling some buyers to sign on the dotted line, Duffy said..."I'll bet some people on the fence are saying 'I am going to pull that trigger,'" he said. "Here's your chance to jump before prices go higher."
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Monday, February 26, 2018
January Chicago Fed National Activity Index slips two points to +0.12
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked down to +0.12 in January from +0.14 in December. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.17 in January from +0.43 in December.
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January new home sales down 7.8 percent from December and 1.0 percent year-on-year
Sales of new single-family houses in January 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000. This is down 7.8 percent from December and 1.0 percent year-on-year. It is also the lowest rate since last August, with the decline potentially due to a combination of steeper prices, higher interest rates and less generous write-offs from tax reform enacted at the beginning of 2018. New home inventory rose to a four-year high.
However, a caveat is important here: Due to the relatively large margin of error given by the Census Bureau for these numbers (19.0 percent from December and 16.4 percent year-on-year), it's also important to review other sources for updates on the housing market. The Bureau will also often update its estimates as more (and better) information comes in.
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Thursday, February 22, 2018
Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate more rate hikes ahead in 2018
A majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate. Almost all participants saw inflation moving up to the Fed's 2 percent inflation goal over the medium term as growth remained above trend and the labor market stayed strong.
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Initial unemployment claims fall 7,000 in latest report
In the week ending February 17, initial unemployment claims were 222,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 226,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.
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Mortgage applications decline 6.6 percent as rates continue to rise
The Market Composite Index decreased 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down 6.0 percent and refinances falling 7.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since January 2014, 4.64 percent.
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February Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rises to second-highest level since March 2002
Americans' outlook for the U.S. economy improved in February to 54.5, the second-highest level since March 2002, indicating lower taxes are resonating. The weekly comfort index was little changed at 56.6, falling from 57.0 the previous week.
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January Leading Economic Index rose for fourth straight month to 108.1
The U.S. LEI accelerated further in January and continues to point to robust economic growth in the first half of 2018. While the recent stock market volatility will not be reflected in the U.S. LEI until next month, consumers' and business' outlook on the economy had been improving for several months and should not be greatly impacted.
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Wednesday, February 21, 2018
January existing home sales down 3.2 percent from December and 4.8 percent year-on-year
Due largely to a shortage of affordable inventory, total existing-home sales sank 3.2 percent in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million from December 2017. After last month's decline, sales are 4.8 percent below a year ago (largest annual decline since August 2014 at 5.5 percent) and at their slowest pace since last September.
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IHS: February U.S. PMI Output Index rises to 55.9, highest reading in almost 2.5 years
U.S. private sector companies experienced a marked improvement in business activity growth during February. This was highlighted by a rise in the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index to 55.9, up from 53.8 in January and the highest reading for almost two-and-a-half years.
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Friday, February 16, 2018
4Q 2017 services revenue grew 2.4 percent from previous quarter and 5.2 percent year-on-year
Advance U.S. selected services total revenue for the fourth quarter of 2017 rose 2.4 from the third quarter of 2017 and was up 5.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2016.
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4Q 2017 e-commerce sales grew 3.2 percent from previous quarter and 16.9 percent year-on-year
U.S. retail e-commerce sales for the fourth quarter of 2017 were $119.0 billion, up 3.2 percent from the third quarter of 2017, and up 16.9 percent year-on-year. Total e-commerce sales for 2017 were estimated at $453.5 billion, up 16.0 percent from 2016.
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January building permits rose to 10.5-year high, up 7.4 percent year-on-year
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January rose to a 10.5-year high of 1,396,000. This is 7.4 percent above both the revised December 2017 rate and the January 2017 rate.
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January housing starts rebounded 9.7 percent from December to second-highest rate since Great Recession
Privately-owned housing starts in January rebounded sharply from weather-related dips in December to 1,326,000. This is 9.7 percent above the revised December estimate, 7.3 percent above the January 2017 level, and is the second-highest annual rate since the Great Recession.
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Labels: building permits, home prices, housing market, housing starts
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Gallup: 2017 Economic Confidence Index varied greatly by state, but average rating rose by 20 points
Residents in three states -- Wyoming, North Dakota and Utah
-- essentially tie as the most confident in the U.S. economy, based on their
scores on Gallup's Economic Confidence Index throughout 2017. In contrast,
Vermont residents were least confident.
Gallup: Half of U.S. states saw well-being scores decline in 2017
Nearly half of U.S. states saw their well-being scores
decline by a statistically significant margin in 2017, according to the
Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index. And, for the first time in nine years of tracking
changes in state well-being, no state saw statistically significant improvement
from the year before.
The Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index score for the nation
and for each state is based on metrics that make up five essential elements of
well-being:
For the nation as a whole, the Well-Being Index score for the U.S. in 2017 was 61.5, a decline from 62.1 in 2016 and the largest year-over-year decline since the index began in 2008.
Gallup: U.S. leadership ratings fall during first year of Trump's presidency to record-low 30 percent
Ratings of U.S. leadership fell in nearly every part of the
world in the first year of Donald Trump's presidency, dragging median approval
to a record-low 30%.
Approval of U.S. leadership dropped across all demographic
groups during Trump's first year, but groups that typically give U.S.
leadership higher approval ratings -- those with more education, those earning
higher incomes and those who live in urban areas -- registered the largest
declines.
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Initial unemployment claims rose 7,000 in weekly report
In the week ending February 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 228,500, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average.
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Mortgage applications dip 4.1 percent as rates right to highest level since January 2014
The Market Composite Index decreased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down 6.0 percent and refinances falling 2.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest rate since January 2014, 4.57 percent, from 4.50 percent.
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Bloomberg: Consumer comfort index shakes off stock market turmoil to highest level since February 2001
U.S. consumer sentiment jumped 2.6 points last week to 57, or the highest level since February 2001, indicating Americans were shaking off turbulence in the stock market. This weekly gain was the highest since 2009.
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December business inventories up 0.4 percent, sales rose 0.6 percent
Business inventories in the U.S. rose 0.4% in December after a similar gain in the prior month. Sales rose 0.6% in December. The ratio of inventories to sales held steady at 1.33.
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Builder confidence remains at 72 in February
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged at a healthy 72 level in February. The HMI component charting sales expectations in the next six months rose two points to 80, the index measuring buyer traffic held steady at 54, and the component gauging current sales conditions dropped one point to 78.
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January Producer Price Index rose 0.4 percent and 2.7 percent year-on-year
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.4 percent in January. Final demand prices were unchanged in December and moved up 0.4 percent in November. The final demand index rose 2.7 percent for the 12 months ended in January.
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Labels: CPI, inflation, PPI, producer price index
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
February Business Inflation Expectations steady at 2.0 percent in the year ahead
According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve monthly survey, firms' inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.0 percent over the year ahead.
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January retail sales fell 0.3 percent, largest decline in 11 months
Americans cut back on purchases of cars, furniture and a variety of other products in January, pushing retail sales down by 0.3%, the biggest decline in 11 months. The January decline, following no change in December, was the largest setback since a 0.5% fall in February of last year.
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Labels: consumer confidence, retail sales, U.S. economy
CPI up 0.5 percent in January and 2.1 percent year-on-year
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January, and was up 2.1 percent year-on-year. The index for all items less food and energy (i.e., core inflation) increased 0.3 percent in January, and was up 1.8 percent year-on-year.
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Labels: consumer price index, core inflation, CPI, inflation
MBA: January new home mortgage applications up 34.0 percent from December and 18.4 percent year-on-year
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
November foreclosure rate down 0.1 percent year-on-year to 5.1 percent
Nationally, 5.1 percent of mortgages were in some stage of
delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in
November 2017. This represents a 0.1 percentage point year-over-year decline in
the overall delinquency rate compared with November 2016 when it was 5.2
percent.
This past
November's foreclosure inventory rate was the lowest for the month of November
in 11 years, since it was also 0.6 percent in November 2006.
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January Small Business Optimism Index jumped two points to 106.9
The Small Business Optimism Index jumped two points to 106.9 in January and set a record with the number of small business owners saying Now Is a Good Time to Expand.
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The Future of Architecture in a High-Tech World
When “The Jetsons” first premiered in the fall of 1962, it
was the first show ever broadcast in color on ABC. Promising a high-tech future originally set
100 years ahead in 2062, the fictional Orbit City’s architecture borrowed
heavily from the ‘googie’ style of modern architecture first popularized in the
1940s.
By the early 1960s, the Space Age
was in full swing, giving us not just Orbit City’s flying cars and maid robots,
but also the famous Theme Building at LAX, still recognized today as a uniquely
Los Angeles landmark.
Peering ahead from 2018, a variety of practical improvements
in technology and design will similarly foster ongoing changes in today’s
architecture, in the process expanding not just the look of buildings, but also
how they get built and funded.
That will
be important in a rapidly expanding world in which the population is expected
to hit 10 billion by 2056, with over 70 percent of us living in cities. Moreover, since an estimated three billion
people will require new housing by 2030, sustainable solutions less reliant on
energy-intensive steel and concrete will need to take center stage.
Some futurists are looking to wood, which not only creates
oxygen while growing, but traps carbon dioxide even when used as a building
material. While the idea of wooden
skyscrapers seems implausible, it’s not a new idea, as multi-story pagodas up to
450 feet were already being built in Asia over 1,500 years ago.
Notably, wood is better for regulating indoor temperatures, can be exposed openly, and, with its water content of 15 percent, can surprisingly be more fire-resistant than concrete or steel.
The advent of 3D modeling will also help designers further unleash their creativity, whether it’s a curving bamboo roof to act as a natural air conditioner, the twisted stainless steel of Los Angeles’ Disney Hall or a new stadium in England which can be used for both soccer and football due to the ingenious use of a mechanism to slide one entire field under the surrounding seats.
Another huge change will occur to the staid and reliable elevator. If you look at today’s skyscrapers, they’re built vertically to surround elevator shafts, with their elaborate systems of pulleys and pistons.
Tomorrow, however, the same type of mag-lev propulsion systems used in bullet trains in Europe and Asia will be able to move elevator cars not just up and down, but also side to side. Unconstrained from the need to build up, buildings will be able to extend out in as many directions as seems commercially feasible.
Helping to build these odd new structures could be the infamous drone, used not just for warfare or delivering Amazon packages, but also eventually capable of building high-rises with greater precision and safety than current methods. During 2011 in France, the first Flight Assembled Architecture installation tapped several ‘quadcopter’ drones to install 1,500 different pieces into a 60-meter model. Built at a 1:100 scale, this design could one day soar up to 600 feet and house up to 30,000 people.
Working alongside the new drones could be industrial-scale 3D printers. In 2014, a Chinese company unveiled such a printer which is capable of producing ten homes per day for a fraction of traditional methods. In addition to lower costs, new ways of mixing building materials could lead to substantial changes in the very aesthetics of home building.
In our increasingly inter-connected world, social media will also play a role, whether it’s using photorealistic renderings to gather community feedback for a new project, or tapping a crowd-funding platform to go where traditional lenders dare not tread.
In 2015, a trio of young architects took their Thames Baths concept to Kickstarter, where they soon eclipsed their fundraising goal with nearly 1,300 contributors. Based on similar projects installed elsewhere in Western Europe, the idea was to create a series of floating pools on an existing waterway usually considered hazardous to bathers and swimmers, in this case the River Thames.
Using treated and heated genuine Thames water, the total price of 10 million pounds is expected to be raised with sponsorships, grants as well as traditional, private investors. Yet without the crowd-funding platform, this idea might have not seen the light of day.
Even George Jetson might have been impressed.
Thursday, February 8, 2018
Initial unemployment claims dip to lowest 4-week average since March 1973
In the week ending February 3, initial unemployment claims were 221,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 230,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 234,500. This is the lowest level for this average since March 10, 1973 when it was 222,000.
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Mortgage applications rise 0.7 percent even as average rates rise to highest level in nearly 4 years
The Market Composite Index increased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans flat and refinances up 1.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since April 2014, 4.50 percent.
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Bloomberg: Consumer Comfort Index holds near recent highs even with stock market volatility
U.S. consumer comfort last week held near the highest level since 2001, falling from 54.6 to 54.4, even as stocks fell on concerns about higher interest rates.
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Wednesday, February 7, 2018
Consumed credit growth rate dipped in December as savings rate fell to lowest level since 2005
Consumer borrowing increased $18.4 billion in December to a
record seasonally adjusted $3.84 trillion, for an annual growth rate of 5.8%.
This was down from a revised $31 billion rate in the prior month. For all of
2017, consumer credit rose at a 5.4% rate, down from a 6.7% rate in the prior year.
Most of this slowdown was for nonrevolving credit. Still, the U.S. savings rate fell to 2.4% in
December, the lowest level since 2005, indicating that households are racking
up more debt due to high consumer confidence, out of necessity, or some combination
of the two.
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Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Markit Services Business Activity Index slipped slightly in January but still in expansion mode
The seasonally adjusted final IHS Markit U.S.Services Business Activity Index registered 53.3 in January, down from 53.7 in December. The latest index reading signalled a solid expansion in business activity among service providers, albeit the slowest since April 2017. Anecdotal evidence linked the latest upturn to more favourable economic conditions.
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January Non-Manufacturing Index rose 3.9 points to 59.9
The January NMI® registered 59.9 percent, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 56 percent. Overall, the majority of respondents’ comments are positive about business conditions and the economy. They also indicated that recent tax changes have had a positive impact on their respective businesses.
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Job openings fell 2.8 percent in December as both hires and separations little changed
The number of job openings fell by 2.8 percent to 5.8 million on the last business day of December. Over the month, hires were flat at 5.5 million and separations rose 0.5 percent to 5.2 million.
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Labels: job hires rate, job quits, job separations, JOLTS job openings
December CoreLogic HPI shows home prices up 0.5 percent and 6.6 percent year-on-year
Corelogic:Home prices nationally increased 0.5 percent in November and 6.6 percent year-on-year. CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 4.3 percent on a year-over-year basis from December 2017 to December 2018.
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Trade deficit up 1.6 percent in November and 11.6 percent YTD from 2016
The goods and services deficit was $50.5 billion in
November, up $1.6 billion from $48.9 billion in October, revised. The November increase in the goods and services deficit
reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $1.7 billion to $70.9 billion and
an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $20.4 billion.
Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $53.4
billion, or 11.6 percent, from the same period in 2016. Exports increased
$112.7 billion or 5.6 percent. Imports increased $166.1 billion or 6.7 percent.
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Friday, February 2, 2018
Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates in monthly meeting
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent.
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December factory goods orders rose 1.7 percent, capping best year since 2011
December factory goods orders rose 1.7 percent, advancing for a fifth straight month. In 2017, U.S. factories last year had their best year for sales growth since 2011, with orders rising 6% from 2016.
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January consumer sentiment nearly flat from December, remains at high levels
Consumer sentiment has remained largely unchanged for more than a year at very favorable levels. The January Sentiment figure was just 0.2 Index-points below December's, and just 1.1 points below the 2017 average of 96.8--which was the highest yearly average since 2000. Stock price increases and the passage of tax reforms were mentioned by all-time record numbers of consumers.
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January employment rose by 200,000, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
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Thursday, February 1, 2018
January ISM manufacturing index dips 0.2 percent, but price increases widespread
As of 2/1/18, GDPNow forecasting 1Q 2018 growth rate of 5.4 percent
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 5.4 percent on February 1, up from 4.2 percent on January 29. The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.1 percent to 4.0 percent after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent after the ISM report and this morning's construction spending release.
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Labels: Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, GDP growth, GDPNow, U.S. economy
Online job vacancies rose just 0.02 percent in January
Initial unemployment claims dip 1,000 in weekly report
In the week ending January 27, initial unemployment claims were 230,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 234,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average.
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Mortgage applications fall 2.6 percent as rates continue to rise
The Market Composite Index decreased 2.6 percent on a
seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with both purchase loans and
refinances falling 3.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year
fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since March 2017, 4.41
percent.
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Weekly Consumer Comfort Index rises to highest levels in nearly 17 years
According to the latest Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, U.S.
consumer confidence, along with a measure of Americans’ views of the economy,
advanced last week to the highest levels in nearly 17 years.
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4Q 2017 labor productivity down 0.1 percent, but up 1.1 percent year-on-year
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.1
percent during the fourth quarter of 2017, as output increased 3.2 percent and
hours worked increased 3.3 percent. From the fourth quarter of 2016 to the
fourth quarter of 2017, productivity increased 1.1 percent, reflecting a
3.2-percent increase in output and a 2.1-percent increase in hours worked. Annual
average productivity increased 1.2 percent from 2016 to 2017.
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January planned job cuts up 37.7 percent from December, down 2.8 percent year-on-year
December construction spending up fifth straight month to record high
December construction spending was up 0.7% from November and 2.6% year-on-year. This was the fifth monthly gain in a row and a record high annual rate of $1.25 trillion. For all of 2017, construction spending grew 3.8% to $1.23 trillion, with residential spending up 10.4%.
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