Both personal income and disposable income increased 0.3 percent in March, while consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.4 percent. The personal savings rate slipped from 3.3 to 3.1 percent.
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Monday, April 30, 2018
March personal income up 0.3 percent, spending up 0.4 percent and personal savings rate dipped to 3.1 percent
March inflation tracker PCE Price Index flat from February, up 2.0 percent year-on-year
The March PCE Price Index was up 0.0 percent from February and 2.0 percent year-on-year.
Stripping out food and energy, it was up 0.2 percent from February and 1.9 percent year-on-year.
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Labels: Federal Reserve, FOMC, inflation, interest rates, Jerome Powell, PCE price index
March pending home sales index up 0.4 percent from February, but down 3.0 percent year-on-year
The Pending Home Sales Index inched up 0.4 percent to 107.6 in March from a downwardly revised 107.2 in February. Even with last month's increase in activity, the index declined on an annualized basis (3.0 percent) for the third straight month.
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Labels: home sales, housing market, Lawrence Yun, NAR, Pending Home Sales Index
Friday, April 27, 2018
April consumer sentiment bounces back but concerns remain about trade tariffs
First quarter 2018 compensation costs up 0.8 percent and 2.7 percent year-on-year
First quarter 2018 GDP growth of 2.3 percent in first of three estimates
Labels: Bureau of Economic Analysis, gdp, GDP growth, U.S. economy
Thursday, April 26, 2018
Initial unemployment claims dip to lowest level since December 1969
In the week ending April 21, initial unemployment claims were 209,000, a decrease of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since December 6, 1969 when it was 202,000 but the population was 38 percent lower. The 4-week moving average was 229,250, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.
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Mortgage applications dip 0.2 percent, rates rise to highest level since September 2013
The Market Composite Index decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans flat and refinances down 0.3 percent. The interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to its highest level since September 2013, 4.73 percent.
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Bloomberg: Consumer comfort index slips along with higher gas prices
The U.S. consumer comfort index eased last week from a 17-year high, falling from 58.1 to 57.5, as Americans felt the pinch of higher gasoline prices.
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Durable goods orders up 2.6 percent in March, largely due to aviation
Orders for long-lasting or "durable" goods jumped 2.6% in March, riding a big increase in contracts for Boeing planes. Still, orders were flat minus transportation, and business investment fell for the third time in four months.
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1Q 2018 vacancy rates were 7.0 percent for rental housing and 1.5 percent for homeowner housing
National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2018 were 7.0 percent for rental housing (flat year-over-year) and 1.5 percent (down 0.2 percentage points year-over-year) for homeowner housing. The homeownership rate in the first quarter 2018 was 64.2 percent, up .06 percentage points from 63.6 percent a year ago.
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February FHFA House Price Index up 0.6 percent from January and 7.2 percent year-on-year
The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) reported 0.6 percent increase in U.S. house prices in February from the previous month. From February 2017 to February 2018, house prices were up 7.2 percent.
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Labels: FHFA House Price Index, FHFA HPI, home prices, housing prices
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
March Investor Confidence Index rose 3.0 points from February
The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 114.5, up 3.0 points from March's revised reading of 111.5. Investors across all regions expressed an appetite for risk, with the North American ICI increasing from 109.1 to 112.3.
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March consumer confidence rebounded moderately from February
Consumer confidence increased moderately in April after a decline in March. Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved somewhat, with consumers rating both business and labor market conditions quite favorably. Consumers' short-term expectations also improved, with the percent of consumers expecting their incomes to decline over the coming months reaching its lowest level since December 2000.
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February Case-Shiller Index up 0.4 percent from January and 6.1 percent year-on-year
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.3% annual gain in February, up from 6.1% in the previous month. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in February.
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March new home sales up 4.0 percent from February and 8.8 percent year-on-year
Sales of new single-family houses in March 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000. This is 4.0 percent above the revised February rate of 667,000 and is 8.8 percent above the March 2017 estimate of 638,000.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2018
March Investor Confidence Index rose 3.0 points from February
The Global Investor Confidence Index increased to 114.5, up 3.0 points from March's revised reading of 111.5. Investors across all regions expressed an appetite for risk, with the North American ICI increasing from 109.1 to 112.3.
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March consumer confidence rebounded moderately from February
Consumer confidence increased moderately in April after a decline in March. Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved somewhat, with consumers rating both business and labor market conditions quite favorably. Consumers' short-term expectations also improved, with the percent of consumers expecting their incomes to decline over the coming months reaching its lowest level since December 2000.
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February Case-Shiller Index up 0.4 percent from January and 6.1 percent year-on-year
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported a 6.3% annual gain in February, up from 6.1% in the previous month. Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in February.
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February FHFA House Price Index up 0.6 percent from January and 7.2 percent year-on-year
The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) reported a 0.6-percent increase in U.S. house prices in February from the previous month. From February 2017 to February 2018, house prices were up 7.2 percent.
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Labels: FHFA House Price Index, home prices, housing market
March new home sales up 4.0 percent from February and 8.8 percent year-on-year
Sales of new single-family houses in March 2018 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000. This is 4.0 percent above the revised February rate of 667,000 and is 8.8 percent above the March 2017 estimate of 638,000.
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Monday, April 23, 2018
US private sector output rises solidly in April, underpinned by fastest new order growth since March 2015
US private sector output rises solidly in April, underpinned by fastest new order growth since March 2015. At 54.8 in April, up from 54.2 in March, the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index indicated a faster upturn in business activity across the private sector.
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March Chicago Fed National Activity index fell due to slower growth
Led by slower growth in production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.10 in March from +0.98 in February. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.27 in March from +0.31 in February.
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Labels: CFNAI, CFNAI-MA3, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, gdp, U.S. economy
March existing home sales up 1.1 percent from February but still down 1.2 percent year-on-year
Total existing-home sales rose 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in March. Despite last month's increase, sales are still 1.2 percent below a year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $250,400, up 5.8 percent from March 2017 ($236,600).
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Labels: existing home sales, home prices, housing market, Lawrence Yun, NAR
Thursday, April 19, 2018
Initial unemployment claims dip 1,000 in weekly report
In the week ending April 14, initial unemployment claims were 232,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 233,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,250, an increase of
1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 230,000.
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Mortgage applications rise 4.9 percent, rates flat
The Market Composite Index increased 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans up 6.0 percent and refinances up 4.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 4.66 percent.
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April Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey positive, but prices rising
Results from the April Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey suggest continued growth for the region's manufacturing sector. The firms also reported higher prices for both inputs and their own manufactured goods this month. The survey's future indexes, measuring expectations for the next six months, reflected continued optimism.
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March Leading Economic Index up 0.3 percent, but labor market bears watching
The U.S. LEI increased 0.3 percent in March, and while the monthly gain is slower than in previous months, its six-month growth rate increased further and points to continued solid growth in the U.S. economy for the rest of the year. However, labor market components made negative contributions in March and bear watching in the near future.
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First Quarter Economic Update: Green Shoots Everywhere, but Tariff Impacts Unknown
As of mid-April, GDP growth is estimated to have risen by 2.0 percent during the first quarter of 2018, but was recently downgraded with concerns about potential trade wars. This growth rate compares to 2.3 percent in 2017 and 1.5 percent in 2016.
While job growth did dip to 103,000 positions in March, the first quarter’s average of 202,000 is still up by nearly 14 percent from the same period of 2017.
Not surprisingly, this extra kick in paychecks has sent consumer sentiment soaring to highs not seen since just after the turn of the 21st century.
Since then, however, prices have risen sharply, with the pricing premium for new versus existing homes rising to 35 percent, when 10 to 20 percent has been closer to the historical norm.
Yet most of these gains were for multi-family homes, pointing to continuing challenges including not just the Canadian tariffs, but also finding suitable land and construction labor.
In addition, with a recent report noting that average pay in construction is now nearly ten percent higher than for all private employees, these extra costs must either be absorbed by the builder or passed along in the form of higher prices.
According to a study by the global consultancy Booz Allen Hamilton, green building was projected to grow at over 15 percent year-over-year from 2015 through 2018, not only outpacing overall construction spending, but also showing a significant impact on GDP, employment and earnings over the previous three-year study period.
More specifically, this growth would support an additional 3.9 million jobs and generate over $303 billion to GDP.
Green building is also a great investment in the future. According to a report to the California Sustainable Building Task Force, upfront spending of two percent of overall construction costs can, over a structure’s lifetime, yield savings of more than ten times the initial outlay.
In the larger, existing home sales market, with February’s pending home sales activity falling by just over four percent year-over-year, NAR is adjusting their estimates for 2018 accordingly. The group is now calling for annual sales to be flat versus 2017, and for home prices to rise by 4.2 percent following a 5.8-percent increase in 2017.
Wednesday, April 18, 2018
February business inventories up 0.6 percent from January and 4.0 percent year-on-year
February manufacturers' and trade inventories were up 0.6 percent from January 2018 and 4.0 percent year-on-year. February sales were up 0.4 percent from January 2018 and 5.8 percent year-on-year.
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March industrial production up 0.5 percent from February and 4.3 percent year-on-year
Industrial production rose 0.5 percent in March and is up 4.3 percent year-on-year. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved up 0.3 percentage point in March to 78.0 percent, a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average.
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March housing starts rebound 1.9 percent from February and 10.9 percent year-on-year
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,319,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised February estimate of 1,295,000 and is 10.9 percent above the March 2017 rate of 1,189,000.
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March building permits rebound 2.5 percent from February and 7.5 percent year-on-year
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.5 percent above the revised February rate of 1,321,000 and is 7.5 percent above the March 2017 rate of 1,260,000.
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Monday, April 16, 2018
February job openings fell 2.8 percent from January, hires and separations fell by a lesser amount
The number of job openings fell by 2.8 percent between the last days of January and February. Over the month, hires and separations fell by 1.2 and 2.4 percent, respectively.
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Consumer sentiment slips in early April survey due to trade policy concerns
Consumer sentiment slipped in early April, largely reversing the gains recorded in the prior two months, mainly due to concerns about the potential impact of Trump's trade policies on the domestic economy. The small decline was widely shared by all age and income subgroups and across all regions of the country. The expectation of rising interest rates also slowed the anticipated pace of growth in the economy.
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March retail sales rebound 0.6 percent following three straight declines
U.S. retail sales rebounded in March by 0.6 percent after three straight monthly declines as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items.
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Labels: car sales, retail sales, retailers, U.S. economy, wholesale sales
Builder confidence dips one point to 69 in April, still remains on firm ground
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged down one point to a level of 69 in April. The HMI index gauging buyer traffic held steady at 51, the chart measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell a single point to 77, and the component gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 75.
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Friday, April 13, 2018
Initial unemployment claims decrease 9,000 in weekly report
In the week ending April 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 233,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 228,250.
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Mortgage applications decline 1.9 percent in weekly report
The Market Composite Index decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with both purchase and refinances down 2.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with decreased to 4.66 percent from 4.69 percent.
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Bloomberg: Weekly Consumer Comfort Index rebounds to fresh 17-year high
Increased optimism about personal finances and the buying climate propelled the U.S. Consumer Comfort Index last week to a fresh 17-year high of 58.0 as a strong job market and more take-home pay boosted the outlook.
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Federal Reserve March meeting minutes show upward revisions to GDP estimates
Participants generally saw the news on spending and the labor market over the past few quarters as being consistent with continued above-trend growth and a further strengthening in labor. The FOMC unanimously voted to approve a quarter-point rate hike, bringing the target range to 1.5 percent to 1.75 percent. Along with the rate hike came upward revisions to the committee's expectations for GDP, which it now sees at 2.7 percent in 2018 and 2.4 percent in 2019.
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March new home purchase applications down 14 percent from February and 2.6 percent year-on-year
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for March 2018 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 2.6 percent compared to March 2017. Compared to February 2018, applications increased by 14 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
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Wednesday, April 11, 2018
Spring selling season is here! Tips for saving money and your sanity during a move.
Making a long move and packing up items like a pool table requires a certain level of expertise. Hiring movers who are ill-equipped for the job will only add to the stress and expense.
HomeSphere March report: Nearly 40 percent of builders reporting negative impact from higher interest rates
Highlights from HomeSphere/BTIG building industry report –
March 2018
- 39% of builders reported some negative impact to sales related to higher interest rates
- 69% of builders raised some or all base prices month/month (with zero of 81 reporting decreases)
- 29% reported that sales were better than internal expectations
CoreLogic: January delinquency rates dipped to 4.9 percent, foreclosed mortgages down to 0.6 percent
CoreLogic: In January, 4.9 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. The foreclosure inventory rate - which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process - was 0.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.
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April business inflation expectations edge up to 2.3 percent, highest measure since October 2011
Firms' inflation expectations increased to 2.3 percent over the year ahead, the highest measure since the survey began in October 2011.
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CPI up 0.1 percent in March, 2.4 percent year-on-year
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in March and was up 2.4 percent year-on-year, and notably higher than the 1.6-percent average annual rate over the past 10 years. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March and 2.1 percent year-on-year, for its largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2017.
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Labels: consumer price index, core CPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, inflation, Jerome Powell
Tuesday, April 10, 2018
March small business optimism dips slightly from record highs
The small business optimism index reached its 16th
consecutive month in the top five percent of 45 years of survey readings. The
104.7 March reading, down from 107.6 in February, remains among the highest in
survey history and for the first time since 1982, taxes received the fewest
number of votes as the number one problem.
Producer Price Index up 0.3 percent in March, 3.0 percent year-on-year
The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in March, as prices
for both final demand services and final demand goods rose 0.3 percent. The
final demand index increased 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in March.
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Labels: Federal Reserve, inflation, Jerome Powell, PPI, producer price index, U.S. economy
Monday, April 9, 2018
February trade deficit widens to highest level since October 2008
The goods and services deficit was $57.6 billion in February, up $0.9 billion from $56.7 billion in January. This is the highest U.S. trade deficit since October 2008.
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February consumer credit use grew by sluggish rate, especially for credit cards
Consumer borrowing increased at a sluggish pace in February, increasing $10.6 billion in February vs. $15.1 expected, and posting an annual growth rate of 3.3%.
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Friday, April 6, 2018
March job growth dips to 103,000, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1 percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in
March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent. This was the lowest rate of job growth since September 2017. Employment
increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining.
Thursday, April 5, 2018
Initial unemployment claims rise 24,000 in weekly report
In the week ending March 31, initial unemployment claims were 242,000, an increase of 24,000 from the previous week's revised level. The 4-week moving average was 228,250, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.
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Mortgage applications dip 3.3 percent, rates remain unchanged
The Market Composite Index decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, with purchase loans down by 2.0 percent and refinance activity falling 5.0 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 4.69 percent.
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Bloomberg: Consumer Comfort Index rebounds to 17-year high of 57.2
U.S. consumer comfort advanced last week to a fresh 17-year high of 57.2 as greater optimism about household finances and the buying climate more than offset a deterioration in views about the economy.
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March planned job cuts up 71 percent from February and 39 percent year-on-year
Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers surged in March to 60,357, a 71 percent increase from February and 39 percent higher year-on-year. Last month's total is the highest monthly total since April 2016.
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Wednesday, April 4, 2018
March online advertised vacancies up 2.2 percent from February and 3.7 percent year-on-year
Online advertised vacancies were 4,819,700 in March, up 2.2 percent from February and 3.7 percent year-on-year. The February Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.42 unemployed for each advertised vacancy, with a total of 2.0 million more unemployed workers than the number of advertised vacancies.
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Service sector index dipped 0.7 points in March to 58.8, business conditions remain positive
The NMI® registered 58.8 percent, which is 0.7 percentage point lower than the February reading of 59.5 percent. The cooling off of the New Orders Index possibly prevented an even stronger reading for the overall index. The majority of respondents remain positive about business conditions.
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Factory goods orders rebounded 1.2 percent, nearly erasing January's decline
New orders for U.S.-made goods rebounded 1.2 percent in February, boosted by strong demand for transportation equipment and a range of other products. This increase nearly matches January's revised decline of 1.3 percent.
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ADP: Private sector employment up 241,000 in March vs. 122,000 year-on-year
Private-sector employment increased by 241,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis. This compares to 246,000 in February and 122,000 during the same month of 2017.
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Tuesday, April 3, 2018
March multi-family rents up 2.5 percent year-on-year while occupancy rates dip to 95.2 percent
The average multifamily rent in the U.S. rose $4 to $1,371
in March, a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase, according to a survey of 121 markets
by Yardi Matrix. This uptick was the first increase since summer 2017, as rents
had not moved more than $1 in either direction since July.
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CoreLogic: February homes prices up 1.0 percent from January and 6.7 percent year-on-year
CoreLogic: February home
prices increased nationally year over year by 6.7 and on a month-over-month
basis, home prices increased by 1 percent in February 2018.